While each of the below clubs still have some kind of shot at making the playoffs, the odds are long for most of them. However, it's interesting to look at the comparison between the range in nERD and range in record.
Among these 10 teams, there is a rather significant swing in nERD from the 11th-ranked club to the 20th-ranked club, but none of them are separated by more than nine wins.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.40 | 55-57 | 2.7% | 0 |
| 19 | Toronto Blue Jays | -0.38 | 52-59 | 2.7% | 0 |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | -0.34 | 53-58 | 3.4% | +2 |
| 17 | Kansas City Royals | -0.30 | 57-54 | 23.4% | -1 |
| 16 | Detroit Tigers | -0.26 | 51-60 | 1.8% | -1 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Angels | -0.25 | 55-58 | 3.9% | +3 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.12 | 59-55 | 19.3% | 0 |
| 13 | Oakland Athletics | 0.13 | 50-62 | 1.0% | -1 |
| 12 | Miami Marlins | 0.22 | 52-58 | 3.8% | 0 |
| 11 | Seattle Mariners | 0.25 | 57-56 | 29.1% | -1 |
Biggest Rise: Los Angeles Angels
The odds aren't necessarily in their favor, but the Los Angeles Angels have been hanging around for a while now. It was impressive to watch them stay afloat with Mike Trout on the disabled list, and the dude hasn't missed a step since returning to the field.
He was activated off the disabled list after the All-Star break (July 14th), and has proceeded to post a 204 wRC+ and .467 wOBA in 96 plate appearances. Despite missing nearly two months prior to the midsummer classic, that 204 wRC+ leads the league in the second half entering action on Tuesday. Is he actually human, or is he a machine? That's up for debate.
Biggest Drop: Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals went on a roller coaster ride throughout the first half with regard to their playoff odds. After starting the year 10-20, they ended up being buyers at the trade deadline and are currently tied for the final AL wild card spot. They did just have a tough week, though, as they've gone just 2-5 in their last seven games.
One of the big turning points in Kansas City's season is when manager Ned Yost finally decided to move Alcides Escobar and his pitiful 39 wRC+ out of the leadoff spot in favor of Whit Merrifield. Since June 5th, Merrifield has exclusively been the Royals' leadoff hitter, and he's produced a 105 wRC+ off the strength of a .286/.316/.479 triple slash with 7 homers, 34 RBI, and 32 runs scored in 250 plate appearances.
Since that move was made, the Royals have gone 33-22. Coincidence? No, not at all.