This is easily the saddest group we're going to cover today, mostly because out of the 10 teams listed below, six currently have absolutely no shot at reaching the postseason. The Atlanta Braves aren't far from joining that club, with 0.4% odds of getting to October at the moment.
As usual, though, the Colorado Rockies continue to buck the trend -- they're the only team below with playoff odds better than 6.9%.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | San Francisco Giants | -1.06 | 44-70 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 29 | Chicago White Sox | -0.85 | 41-68 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 28 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.71 | 40-69 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 27 | Minnesota Twins | -0.61 | 54-56 | 5.1% | -1 |
| 26 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.59 | 56-56 | 6.9% | +3 |
| 25 | Colorado Rockies | -0.50 | 64-48 | 73.6% | 0 |
| 24 | San Diego Padres | -0.48 | 49-62 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 22 | New York Mets | -0.45 | 49-60 | 0.0% | -5 |
| 22 | Atlanta Braves | -0.45 | 51-59 | 0.4% | +2 |
| 21 | Cincinnati Reds | -0.43 | 46-66 | 0.0% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Baltimore Orioles
If we had to choose one team that completely confused everyone at the non-waiver trade deadline, it'd definitely be the Baltimore Orioles. Despite being just 51-54 on the day of the deadline, they decided against trading someone like Zach Britton and instead acquired a rental starting pitcher in Jeremy Hellickson, along with shortstop Tim Beckham.
ESPN's Buster Olney graded Baltimore's deadline activity as an F (subscription required), giving them the dubious honor of being the only organization graded that low.
While it would've made the most sense for them to sell off some pieces, here they are entering action on Tuesday, sitting at .500 and just 1.5 games behind the final American League wild card spot. So far, they can thank Hellickson (seven shutout innings in his first start) and Beckham (324 wRC+ through 29 plate appearances) for their immediate contributions during this recent stretch of effectiveness.
Biggest Drop: New York Mets
It looked like the New York Mets' 2017 season has been over for a while now -- they acted like it was prior to the non-waiver trade deadline -- but it hits home a little more when your playoff odds dip all the way down to 0.0%.
What this does do, though, is give them a chance to see what they have for 2018 before the winter hits. They've already acquired A.J. Ramos to pair with Jeurys Familia at the end of ballgames, and New York will also give some playing time to their top position player prospects to see what they have to offer.
Shortstop Amed Rosario is already in the big leagues, and while he's produced just a 34 wRC+ with a 45.5% strikeout rate and 0.0% walk rate through his first 22 plate appearances, he should be getting a chance to play every day and get acclimated to the next level of play. Not too far behind him is first baseman Dominic Smith, who has impressed in Triple-A and will reportedly get promoted prior to September 1st.