The teams our metrics aren't giving any shot of making the playoffs now carries over into the middle part of the league, but it's still pretty close together with regard to the number of wins. Among this group, no team has fewer than 55 victories, while none are higher than 68.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Detroit Tigers | -0.38 | 57-73 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | -0.38 | 55-76 | 0.0% | +3 |
| 18 | New York Mets | -0.35 | 57-73 | 0.0% | +2 |
| 17 | Texas Rangers | -0.14 | 64-66 | 5.9% | -2 |
| 16 | Minnesota Twins | -0.12 | 67-63 | 37.9% | +5 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Angels | -0.11 | 67-65 | 14.1% | +1 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.06 | 68-63 | 22.7% | -1 |
| 13 | Oakland Athletics | 0.09 | 58-73 | 0.0% | +1 |
| 12 | Seattle Mariners | 0.17 | 66-66 | 14.0% | -1 |
| 11 | Miami Marlins | 0.25 | 66-64 | 20.3% | +1 |
Biggest Rise: Minnesota Twins
If the Royals are on the downswing with regard to their roller coaster season, then the Minnesota Twins are on the upswing. Just a month ago, a tough week leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline spurred the front office to sell off a couple assets. It seemed like the dream was over on August 1st, evidenced by their 50-53 record and 4.4% chances of making the playoffs.
But they still have some life left in them, and while it's only a one-game edge, they are in control of their own destiny in the legitimately wild AL Wild Card race. Judging from their 121 team wRC+ since the last time we checked in around the league, their offense has a lot to do with this resurgence. And guess who's leading the way? That's right -- outfielder Byron Buxton.
In his last 59 plate appearances, Buxton still isn't walking very much (1.7%), but he's at least cut down on the strikeouts (23.7%). That's lead to 7 homers, 14 RBI, and 16 runs scored on his way to a 199 wRC+. It's also helpful that he's posted a 32.6% hard-hit rate and 9.3% soft-hit rate during this time.
Biggest Drop: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are technically still in the AL Wild Card hunt since they're just three games off the pace heading into action on Tuesday, but the odds are clearly against them, and we're not just talking about our metrics. Outside of being tied with Kansas City, there are another five clubs they'll have to leap if they want to get back to the postseason.
Texas' offense has actually been humming along quite nicely over the last couple weeks -- their 121 team wRC+ is just as good as Minnesota. However, the pitching staff has stumbled to a 4.82 ERA that's supported by a 5.50 SIERA. So, it may not feel like it, but they're actually fortunate that things haven't been worse.
A problem with most of the staff this year has been an inability to strike hitters out and walking too many. That's continued since we last checked in, as they've posted rates of 14.8% and 11.1% in those departments, respectively. When Martin Perez leads the staff with a 0.4 fWAR despite his 4.64 SIERA, 12.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in the last 14 days, you know something just ain't right.