We've got plenty of teams in the below chart that are already looking forward to next year. There are only three squads that currently have playoff odds greater than 0.4%, according to our metrics. There are two teams above .500, though -- the Baltimore Orioles have won five in a row to get themselves back over the hump, but it's still unlikely they'll grab a playoff spot. Then again, the American League Wild Card race is pretty nuts right now, so who knows.
As it's been nearly all season, there's one team here that stands out from the rest as they control their own destiny with regard to playing October baseball.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Record | Playoff Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | San Francisco Giants | -0.95 | 53-80 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 28 | Philadelphia Phillies | -0.74 | 52-77 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 28 | Chicago White Sox | -0.74 | 49-81 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | -0.54 | 63-69 | 0.1% | -4 |
| 26 | San Diego Padres | -0.50 | 57-74 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 24 | Kansas City Royals | -0.48 | 64-66 | 5.4% | -7 |
| 24 | Atlanta Braves | -0.48 | 57-72 | 0.0% | +1 |
| 23 | Colorado Rockies | -0.47 | 71-60 | 54.7% | +4 |
| 22 | Toronto Blue Jays | -0.41 | 61-70 | 0.4% | -4 |
| 21 | Baltimore Orioles | -0.39 | 66-65 | 8.9% | +3 |
Biggest Rise: Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies may have seen their nERD ranking improve over the last two weeks, but they've posted just a 5-8 record during that time. Earlier in the year, it seemed like a near certainty that they and the Arizona Diamondbacks would take the two NL Wild Card spots. But now? The Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals are all with 5.5 games of them.
With a 1.3 fWAR over the last two weeks, the Rockies' pitching staff as a whole is still among the 10 best in baseball. However, with a 4.40 team ERA, they need the offense to keep doing their fair share of heavy lifting. Their 104 team wRC+ and .211 ISO are both big improvements compared to what they've accomplished all year at the plate (86 and .170, respectively). It shouldn't be surprising that everything basically runs through leadoff man, Charlie Blackmon, either.
The All-Star has had another terrific year, and his last 61 plate appearances have been no different. He's slashed a very healthy .385/.475/.673 during this time, which has produced a 179 wRC+ and .472 wOBA.
Biggest Drop: Kansas City Royals
The roller coaster year continues for the Kansas City Royals. Manager Ned Yost and his squad woke up on August 1st with a 55-49 record and a 42.0% chance of reaching the postseason for the first time since winning it all in 2015. Unfortunately for them, they've fallen back below .500, and those 5.4% playoff odds haven't been that low since they were at 2.0% on June 13th.
And nothing is really going right for them at the moment. The team fWAR of 0.1 for the pitching staff during the past two weeks is tied for the second-lowest mark in baseball, while their team wRC+ of 75 is third worst. Ian Kennedy has especially struggled -- he's posted a -0.6 fWAR through his most recent 10 innings of work (three starts), and the other numbers are just as bad. His strikeout rate sits at just 14.6% while his walk rate is coming in at 12.7%, and he's allowing 5.40 homers per nine innings. So, that 6.37 SIERA shouldn't be too shocking.
However, it's hard to win when you don't score any runs, and the Royals have been shutout in each of their last four games, being outscored 32-0 in that time.