Price: $4,000
An offense that oddsmakers do like tonight, the Boston Red Sox have a huge 5.83 implied total as they take on Baltimore righty Chris Tillman.
Tillman finished 2017 with an egregious 5.83 SIERA, which is the second-worst mark among the starters in action on Friday. He also had the fourth-highest walk rate and second-lowest strikeout rate of that group, while allowing the third-highest hard-hit rate (38.3%). He hasn't turned things around at all in 2018 either. His two starts have been terrible, allowing nine earned runs, striking out only three and walking eight over 9 1/3 innings.
J.D. Martinez has had a quiet start to his Red Sox career, but 48 plate appearances isn't enough of a sample-size to raise any worries, especially when he's boasting an absurd 67.9% hard-hit rate and a 7.1% soft-hit rate. Those crazy numbers aren't sustainable, but he is coming off a 2017 campaign that saw him notch a massive 49.0% hard-hit rate, which translated to a career-best .430 wOBA and a .387 isolated slugging (ISO).
With the Boston offense in such a good spot, creating ample opportunity for runs and RBI, Martinez has elite upside in this one.