Price: $12,200

Top-end pitching is a little shaky on today's slate, so even with a bit of risk, Trevor Bauer really stands out from the crowd.

Cleveland are Friday's second-biggest favorites (-190 moneyline), and while the Texas Rangers have a reasonable 4.04 implied total at the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington, that's the kind of risk we can look past on this slate.

The Rangers have plenty of power, but their 25.3% strikeout rate against righties is the fourth-highest in the Majors. Bauer has a nasty 31.4% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging-strike rate this season, and his potential to rack up points is clear. That strikeout potential also goes a long way to boosting his floor -- strikeouts score highly enough that a high strikeout number can more than make up for a few earned runs, meaning that even if Texas' offense produces well, Bauer could still return a solid fantasy score.

The only pitcher that our models project ahead of Bauer is Stephen Strasburg, but returning from an almost six-week layoff means that he will likely be on a short leash tonight, making him tough to trust over Bauer.