Marco Estrada is a straight up magician.
For the second straight year, the Blue Jays' righty is outperforming his peripherals by a significant margin.
| Year | ERA | SIERA | K% | Hard-Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3.13 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| 2016 | 2.93 | 4.27 | 24.1% | 33.7% |
This year, at least, he's got an above-average strikeout rate, but there's really no reason for him to have an ERA under 3.00.
So, how's he doing it?
Well, as you could probably guess, there's a whole mess of good luck going on here.
Estrada has the game's lowest BABIP at .191, and the second-lowest mark -- Colby Lewis' .234 clip -- is a long way behind his. Estrada is also tightroping his way out of trouble fairly often as his 80.3% strand rate ranks 13th.
Another terrifying thing is Estrada's fly-ball rate. At 48.9%, he's allowing more fly-balls than any other pitcher. Fly balls mixed with his 33.7% hard-hit rate is going to result in dingers sooner or later, especially in the homer-happy Rogers Centre, which ranks seventh in home run factor.
Maybe the batted-ball luck will continue in some fashion because it's lasted this long, but that's a risky proposition. Estrada is the 55th-ranked player in Yahoo standard leagues, and if you can flip him for a quality asset, you're fleecing someone.