Steven Wright's peripherals are a little -- like his signature pitch -- funky to figure out, but he sure looks like he's due for some regression.
First, let's recap what's been an unbelievable first half for the knuckleballer. Wright owns a 10-5 record with a 2.68 ERA. He's racked up 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), per FanGraphs, after amassing just 0.1 fWAR in his previous 93 career innings.
How he's doing it is a little bit of a mystery.
In 2015, Wright went 5-4 with a 4.09 ERA through 72 2/3 innings, and he hasn't really been -- as far as advanced stats go -- significantly better this season.
| Year | Innings | ERA | SIERA | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 72 2/3 | 4.09 | 4.60 | 16.8% | 8.7% |
| 2016 | 114 | 2.68 | 4.49 | 19.8% | 9.0% |
As you can see, Wright's SIERA isn't that much better than what he posted in 2015. While his strikeout rate is more respectable, it's still less than league average. Wright has also improved his hard-hit rate, dropping it from 33.9% last season to 28.0% this year.
Wright's BABIP is actually worse this year (.271) than last (.252), but his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of 6.5% is well below his numbers from the past two years (12.2% and 16.7%, respectively).
Wright, who pitches his home games in the most hitter-friendly environment not named Coors Field, is probably going to give up a few more jacks in the second half, and his ERA will likely start to reflect his SIERA. As a breakout star who is currently Yahoo's 67th-ranked player, Wright will likely be coveted by your leaguemates.