I am pleased to inform you that this data sheet is incomplete.
Telling you straight out, "This stuff's kinda worthless right now!" probably isn't the best sales pitch. Apologies to my bosses. But hey, you already clicked, so mission accomplished? Hopefully the excitement of having qualifying and practice this weekend outweighs the buzzkill.
Because Sunday is the first time the NASCAR Cup Series has gone to Circuit of the Americas (COTA), they'll have practice on Saturday and qualifying on Sunday. That's key information to have when trying to fill out daily fantasy lineups, so I can't tell you right now whether Driver X or Driver Y will be the better play.
Other information still has some value, though. So let's start off with that now. Then, I'll circle back on Sunday with a complete data sheet to utilize while finalizing lineups. (UPDATE: The starting order and practice data have since been added to the sheet. The practice laps were run under wet conditions, meaning they should be taken with a hefty grain of salt. Qualifying was conduct under dry conditions.)
The data currently listed is each driver's FanDuel salary, win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and a rundown of both current form and history on road courses. The win odds are in fractional form, so Chase Elliott ($14,500 on FanDuel) being listed at 2.5 means he's +250 to win.
The road-course history will be the big draw, but current-form matters, too. There's an overlap between performance in the 750-horsepower package (the six races in the current-form section are the six oval races to use that package this year) and what drivers do on road courses. Both involve heavy off-throttle time and require braking prowess, so you'd expect drivers who are good in one to be good in the other.
As evidence, the correlation between each driver's average running position at the Daytona roval (the lone road-course race this year) and their aggregate average running position in the 750 package on ovals this year is 0.782. That's even with some drivers who have been good in the 750 package getting into trouble in Daytona. Although this is a road course, current form on ovals (in this package, at least) still matters.
As always, the number listed for each race is the driver's average running position rather than where they finished. At Daytona, Elliott had a tremendous car (as is always the case on road courses). He led 44 laps and won the opening stage. However, a late spin relegated him to a 21st-place finish, which very much sells short the speed he had that day.
One word of caution with the road-course history is that it spans back three years. The only road-course race we've had in 2021 was the Daytona roval. Some drivers may have been in less effective (or more effective) equipment in previous seasons, tainting their road-course history. This pertains most heavily to Ross Chastain ($5,500), who was in back-marker equipment prior to this year.
| Practice | Current Form | Road-Course History | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Start | Single Lap | 5-Lap Avg | Dover | Darlington | Richmond | Martinsville | Bristol | Phoenix | Daytona 2021 | Charlotte 2020 | Daytona 2020 | Charlotte 2019 | Watkins Glen 2019 | Sonoma 2019 |
| Tyler Reddick | $6,500 | 40 | 1 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 16 | 23 | -- | -- | -- |
| Kyle Larson | $12,000 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 10 | -- | -- | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| Austin Cindric | $8,200 | 18 | 3 | 18 | -- | -- | -- | 26 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kyle Busch | $12,500 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 4 |
| William Byron | $10,000 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 11 |
| Joey Logano | $11,000 | 16 | 6 | 2 | -- | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $8,000 | 14 | 7 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chase Elliott | $14,500 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 15 |
| Ryan Blaney | $12,000 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,500 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 15 | -- | -- | -- |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,300 | 16 | 11 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,800 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 13 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 25 | 13 | 8 | -- | 12 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 11 | 14 |
| Cole Custer | $7,500 | 66 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 18 | 22 | -- | -- | -- |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,300 | 66 | 15 | 27 | 11 | 14 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 | 26 | 11 | 21 | 17 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,000 | 125 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 22 | -- | 21 | 29 | 24 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 4 | 17 | 23 | -- | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,000 | 150 | 18 | 15 | -- | 15 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 19 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 26 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,000 | 9 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 10 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,500 | 100 | 20 | 7 | -- | 14 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 20 | 30 | -- | -- | 36 | 29 | 34 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,700 | 66 | 21 | 26 | -- | 24 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,500 | 125 | 22 | 24 | -- | 20 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| Michael McDowell | $8,500 | 50 | 23 | 10 | -- | 25 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 23 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,500 | 18 | 24 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,000 | 250 | 25 | 25 | -- | 28 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 37 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,500 | 100 | 26 | 28 | -- | 22 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 35 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,000 | 66 | 27 | 13 | -- | 30 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chris Buescher | $7,700 | 66 | 28 | 11 | -- | 13 | 12 | 26 | 16 | 13 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 66 | 29 | 33 | -- | 22 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 7 | 14 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 200 | 30 | 29 | 13 | -- | 28 | 38 | 30 | -- | 28 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 200 | 31 | 38 | -- | 35 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 32 | 31 | -- | 34 | 31 | -- |
| James Davison | $3,000 | 250 | 32 | 20 | 10 | 36 | 32 | 35 | 33 | -- | 33 | 28 | 30 | 31 | -- | -- | -- |
| Ty Dillon | $4,500 | 150 | 33 | 30 | 14 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 22 | -- | 26 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 26 | 26 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,500 | 125 | 34 | 34 | -- | 24 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 27 | 23 | 26 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 12 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 250 | 35 | 31 | 18 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | 33 | 34 |
| Ryan Preece | $5,000 | 150 | 36 | 35 | -- | 22 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 27 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 250 | 37 | 37 | -- | 28 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 38 | 36 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 250 | 38 | 39 | 19 | 34 | -- | 33 | -- | -- | 35 | 33 | -- | 33 | 31 | -- | -- |
| Kyle Tilley | $2,500 | 250 | 39 | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Quin Houff | $2,000 | 250 | 40 | -- | -- | 31 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 33 | 40 | 32 | 35 | -- | -- | -- |
Two drivers with minimal data on the sheet but mid-range odds and salaries are Austin Cindric ($8,200) and A.J. Allmendinger ($8,000). That optimism is (for the most part) justified.
Allmendinger has been out of the Cup Series full-time the past two-plus years, but he was always competitive on road courses. He won in Watkins Glen and had two more top-fives there. He also finished seventh while driving for Kaulig Racing at the Daytona roval this year, so his equipment is competitive enough. His betting odds are shorter than they should be, but Allmendinger's firmly on the radar for DFS.
For Cindric, it's a combination of his equipment and his dominance in the Xfinity Series. Cindric's driving a Team Penske car. With how good teammates Ryan Blaney ($12,000) and Joey Logano ($11,000) have been both at road courses and in the 750 package, we can expect Cindric to have some giddy-up this week.
Cindric has shown the ability to exploit said giddy-up in the lower ranks. He has four career Xfinity wins on road courses in addition to three runner-ups and two third-place finishes. He's consistently the car to beat there. We should be high on Cindric entering the weekend.