Daily Fantasy NASCAR Track Preview: EchoPark Texas Grand Prix

Normally in this column, I can tell you exactly how we should play things in NASCAR DFS. All the info we'll get before the race is already available, so we can fill out lineups as early as Wednesday morning.

This week? No idea! And it's a blessing.

With the NASCAR Cup Series heading to Circuit of the Americas (COTA) for the first time, they will have practice and qualifying for just the third time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We don't know where cars will start yet, and that's key data to have in the lineup-building process.

Before even discussing that, though, we have to run through the schedule for this weekend. The presence of practice and qualifying changes our lineup-building process, so let's start things off there before getting into strategy.

A Small Window Sunday

If you want to fill out optimal lineups for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix, clear your calendars for Sunday around noon.

Qualifying will take place on Sunday starting at 11 am Eastern. It should be wrapped up by around 11:50, at which time we'll finally know who's starting where. As we'll discuss later, that's vital information for DFS.

Unfortunately, that leaves us with only 2.5 hours until lock. If you're not around to react to what happened during qualifying, the field will have a leg up against you.

This, quite frankly, sucks. But it's a hindrance for our competition, as well, and not everybody's going to take advantage of qualifying by circling back to edit lineups. Even though it's inconvenient, we get an edge in contests where lineups will be more inefficient than usual.

If you're not around in that window, you'll have to decide whether you want to play this week. If your goal is simply to get down action, have at it! I won't talk you out of a good time. But if your goal is to make +EV decisions, it's probably a good weekend to sit out.

The other data we'll get over the weekend is practice, which will take place on Saturday at 10 am Eastern. You'll have single-lap data for likely every car, and NASCAR.com's race center will have consecutive lap averages, as well. Because the course is so long, the max we'll likely get is how fast each driver was over a five-lap run, but we'll happily take that data to help decide who will be fast during the race itself.

Race Strategy

The reason qualifying matters so much this week is that the race is short. Because COTA is such a big track, they'll run just 68 laps on Sunday. That's 6.8 FanDuel points for laps led, which doesn't give much juice to drivers starting at the front.

Whenever that's the case, the highest-upside plays (in a vacuum) will be those starting further back. Place-differential points are the same regardless of race length, so shorter races lend themselves toward prioritizing that over lap-leaders.

Here's the caveat, though: with qualifying taking place, the fastest cars (in theory) will be at the front. And as much as place-differential points matter, finishing points are going to make up the grand majority of the total points scored this week. It means we can't force place-differential if it means rostering drivers who won't be competitive.

This leads to the strategy we used back in the day for road courses with qualifying: accept place-differential when it's presented to you.

If you find a driver starting further back with the potential to finish well, that's great! They're going to be a rockstar play. Most often, this will be someone with good history on road courses and good equipment who had some sort of issue in qualifying.

However, we do need to be selective. Sometimes, drivers starting in the back are there for a reason. If they aren't going to work their way forward and finish well, they're not going to be a quality DFS play. We have to be selective.

One way to do this is just look at the starting order in reverse. Start with the 40th-place driver and scroll forward, looking for drivers you think will be competitive. Once you get to them, lock them in. They're likely a quality play. But if you don't think a top-10 is in their range of outcomes, keep on strolling.

Basically, just don't force it. With the importance of finishing points, we can't afford to roster duds just because of a low starting position. If they can't realistically get a top-10 finish (or a top-15 if they're starting super far back and have a low salary), then just move on.

The other big thing to know is that you should roster the driver you expect to win, regardless of where they're starting. You get 43 points for a win on FanDuel. In the Daytona roval race this year, only nine drivers topped that mark, and that's before we add in the 6.8 points the driver gets for laps completed and any points for laps led. The winner's a lock to be in the perfect lineup, so in tournaments, feel free to make assumptions of who will win and ride with them regardless.

We can see all of this in practice by going back to 2019 when we did have qualifying for these short road-course races. At the Charlotte roval, Three of the five drivers in the perfect lineup started on the front three rows. That could happen here if qualifying goes to plan.

There were some place-differential plays who squeaked through in both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, though. Here's the Sonoma perfect lineup.

And here's the one for Watkins Glen.

The two winners -- Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott, respectively -- both made the perfect lineup after starting near the front. That's why we pick assumed winners in tournaments. But after them, there was some place-differential up for grabs.

That's why it's important to carve out time on Sunday to build lineups. If we do get some speed deeper in the pack, they're going to be must-have plays. It's better to not play than to let your competition get those plays while you pass them up.

So, although it is annoying to have such a short window, it's going to lead to more inefficient lineups for the public than usual. If you've got the time, you'd be wise to take advantage.