The Oklahoma City Thunder rise, the Minnesota Timberwolves fall, and everything else stays the same in the top tier.
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Washington Wizards | 28-22 | 54.1 | 10 | 0 |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 21-29 | 54.2 | 9 | 0 |
| 8 | Indiana Pacers | 29-23 | 54.2 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | San Antonio Spurs | 34-19 | 58.8 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 32-22 | 59.8 | 5 | -1 |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 30-21 | 62.4 | 6 | 1 |
| 4 | Boston Celtics | 37-15 | 62.8 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | Houston Rockets | 36-13 | 68.4 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Toronto Raptors | 34-15 | 69.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | Golden State Warriors | 40-11 | 73.3 | 1 | 0 |
Risers
The Thunder are starting to look like the team we all envisioned they would be when they acquired All-Stars Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to team up with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook. They had won eight games in a row before dropping one to the Washington Wizards on Tuesday, and they only play one team from the top-10 of our power rankings in the entire month of February (two games against the Warriors). They now rank fifth in the NBA in margin of victory (4.12), seventh in offensive rating, and fourth in defensive rating, joining the Warriors and Raptors as the only teams in the Association to rank in the top-10 in all three. They might not be in the stratosphere of the Warriors (27.0% title odds, per our numbers) or Houston Rockets (17.0%) quite yet in terms of contending for the crown, but our algorithm is starting to take them a little more seriously, giving them a 4.5% chance of winning it all (fifth-best overall and third in the West).
Fallers
The Timberwolves were charging forward in the new year, but they've lost a step, dropping four of their last five contests and six of their last nine. They've had the worst defensive rating in the NBA over the last two weeks and have sunk to 25th in defensive rating on the year. They are anchored by their third-ranked offensive efficiency, and we still give them a commanding 99.6% chance of making the postseason for the first time in 14 years. But they'll have to get it back together defensively if they want to stave off the pesky San Antonio Spurs and the streaking Thunder to keep homecourt in the first round of the playoffs.