The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks have found catalysts for winning, the Detroit Pistons hope they've done the same, and the Miami Heat continue to post a low nERD, despite their record.
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Miami Heat | 29-22 | 45.4 | 19 | -1 |
| 19 | Utah Jazz | 22-28 | 46.8 | 20 | 1 |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | 23-26 | 47.2 | 17 | -1 |
| 17 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 30-20 | 47.4 | 18 | 1 |
| 16 | Denver Nuggets | 26-25 | 48.4 | 15 | -1 |
| 15 | Portland Trail Blazers | 28-22 | 51.3 | 14 | -1 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Clippers | 25-25 | 51.4 | 13 | -1 |
| 13 | New Orleans Pelicans | 27-23 | 51.5 | 12 | -1 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 27-22 | 52.1 | 16 | 4 |
| 11 | Philadelphia 76ers | 24-24 | 52.4 | 11 | 0 |
Risers
The Jazz have won four of their last five contests, including victories against the top two teams in our power rankings (the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors). They have looked like a completely different team since Rudy Gobert's recent return from a 15-game absence, going 4-2 with the Stifle Tower, as opposed to 4-11 while he was out. They've also had the league's second-best defensive rating since Gobert's return and now sit only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot, with two of the teams ahead of them (the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers) losing a superstar recently to injury (DeMarcus Cousins) or trade (Blake Griffin). We give the Jazz only a 16.2% chance of making the postseason, but more results like their recent wins will grow that number.
The Bucks have looked energized since the Jason Kidd firing, rattling off four consecutive wins under interim coach Joe Prunty. They've had an average margin of victory of 13.8 points per game over that span, and they now sit seventh in the Eastern Conference with a record of 27-22, which is only a game back of the Heat for fourth and 2.5 back of the Cleveland Cavaliers for third.
Fallers
The Heat are seven games over .500 with a record of 29-22, fourth in the Eastern Conference, and they are only a game and a half back of the Cavaliers for third. That's not really a profile of a team that you'd expect to see just an inch out of the bottom-third of our power rankings, but nERD simply isn't a fan of what the Heat are doing this season. Their negative point differential (-0.65) gives them a Pythagorean wins and losses record (expected wins and losses based on points scored and points allowed) of 24-27, a full five games back of their actual record. We do give them a 93.0% chance of making the postseason, but they don't profile as a team that'll do much if they get there.
The Pistons are in a freefall, having lost eight in a row before beating Cleveland on Tuesday night. Help is on the way following the Griffin trade, but we give them only a 36.9% chance of making the postseason after slipping to ninth in the Eastern Conference over the last few weeks.