The Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34) and Utah Jazz (48-34) could not be more evenly matched. Apart from having identical win-loss records, the two teams are neck and neck in nERD, with the Jazz ranking fifth in our year-end power rankings with a mark of 61.3 and the Thunder coming in sixth at 60.3.

Our 52.51% projection in favor of OKC represents our closest odds of all eight first-round series, barely edging out the 52.79% we give the Portland Trail Blazers to beat the New Orleans Pelicans.