LeBron James drags the Los Angeles Lakers way up our rankings, the San Antonio Spurs stay relevant, and the Philadelphia 76ers and Oklahoma City Thunder take small steps back.
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 0-1 | 57.0 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 | Indiana Pacers | 1-0 | 57.0 | 11 | 1 |
| 9 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 0-1 | 57.1 | 6 | -3 |
| 8 | Utah Jazz | 1-0 | 58.8 | 6 | -2 |
| 7 | Philadelphia 76ers | 0-0 | 60.2 | 4 | -3 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 0-1 | 60.8 | 21 | 15 |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 1-0 | 62.4 | 3 | -2 |
| 4 | San Antonio Spurs | 1-0 | 62.8 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Boston Celtics | 1-0 | 64.6 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | Houston Rockets | 0-1 | 67.0 | 1 | -1 |
| 1 | Golden State Warriors | 1-0 | 81.2 | 2 | 1 |
Risers
The "LeBron James Effect" is in full force this year, as his move to the Los Angeles Lakers not only relegates the Cleveland Cavaliers to the basement of our rankings, but it also catapults the Lakers up from the bottom tier to the top in one fell swoop. LA made plenty of other interesting moves during the summer, but their chances of success start and end with the King. It's wild to think that last year's 11-seed in the Western Conference that finished 12 games out of the playoffs now has an 86.8% chance of making it and a 3.8% chance of winning the title according to our algorithms, but that's a good indication of just how important LeBron is.
With Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili retired, Kawhi Leonard traded to the Toronto Raptors, and Tony Parker off playing with the Charlotte Hornets, many are ready to write off the ever-consistent San Antonio Spurs in 2018-19. Our algorithms have a different thought on the matter, however, as we have them ranked fourth overall, beating out more readily accepted contenders like Kawhi's Raptors, LeBron's Lakers, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Don't sleep on a team that has two All-NBAers in tow in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, one of the best coaches of all time in Gregg Popovich, and 21 straight years of postseason experience. Our algorithms sure aren't.
Fallers
The Oklahoma City Thunder arguably got better on paper by getting rid of an aging and increasingly less effective Carmelo Anthony, and adding depth in Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel, but they lose a few spots in our rankings to make room for teams with higher ceilings like the Los Angeles Lakers. The duo of Russell Westbrook and Paul George could be even better in the pairing's second go-round, however, so we'll see if they can make a play for the top half of this tier as the year goes on.
The Philadelphia 76ers have an undefinable ceiling as budding superstars Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid continue to grow, but the team simply got worse this offseason. They lost two solid rotation pieces and excellent midseason acquisitions from last year's run in Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli, while only adding Wilson Chandler (who's already dealing with a hamstring issue). They're also going all in on the Markelle Fultz reclamation project, which isn't off to a strong start (he's shooting 7-for-22 from the field through two games). They obviously have a shot at moving up these rankings as the season progresses, but they start the year off in a modest position.