The Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers lose some ground, while the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks make some up.
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Dallas Mavericks | 0-1 | 47.8 | 22 | 2 |
| 19 | Detroit Pistons | 1-0 | 48.2 | 19 | 0 |
| 18 | Miami Heat | 1-1 | 48.8 | 15 | -3 |
| 17 | Charlotte Hornets | 0-1 | 49.0 | 14 | -3 |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets | 1-0 | 50.7 | 20 | 5 |
| 15 | Washington Wizards | 0-1 | 50.7 | 18 | 3 |
| 14 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1-0 | 51.3 | 10 | -4 |
| 13 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1-0 | 54.6 | 16 | 3 |
| 12 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1-0 | 55.9 | 13 | 1 |
Risers
The Denver Nuggets missed out on the postseason by one measly game last year, but we're already giving them a 39.6% chance of making it this time around in the hyper-competitive Western Conference. Their very young core gets a year older, Paul Millsap is entering the year healthy after a down season, and offseason acquisitions Isaiah Thomas and rookie Michael Porter Jr. provide high ceilings (even if lingering injuries make their floors a bit scary). They still need to prove themselves, but the Nuggets are a team to watch this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks will have boatloads of potential for as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is wearing their jersey, but they move up in our rankings to start this season because of their summer additions. Former Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer is now at the helm instead of that interim coach whose name you've no doubt forgotten, while veterans Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova provide added depth. If Antetokounmpo can take yet another step forward, look for the Bucks to be movers in this column all season long.
Fallers
The Charlotte Hornets had a weird 2017-18. They finished with a record of 36-46, but their 0.26 point differential gave them a Pythagorean win-loss record of 42-40 and kept them high in our rankings all season long. They continuously flirted with our top-10, even long after they were realistically out of the playoff race. This year, however, things should go back to normal. They might still be good (we give them a 63.7% chance of making the playoffs), but at least they should have the wins to show for it this time around, not just the advanced stats.
The Portland Trail Blazers finished last season as the third-place team in the Western Conference with a record of 49-33. They hovered around the top-third of our rankings by the end of the year, but take a slight step back to start this one. There were no major changes to their roster this offseason -- other than adding the other Curry -- but continuity might not be enough to make up extra ground in the conference that just welcomed LeBron James, DeMar DeRozan, and a slew of interesting new rookies.