So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from Week 1 with big value swings in one category but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has the ball stripped by Washington cornerback Josh Norman for his first fumble of the night (WP: -18.89, NEP: -4.82).
9. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is strip-sacked by Minnesota Vikings defensive end Brian Robison (WP: -26.91, NEP: -4.72).
8. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is intercepted in the end zone by Oakland Raiders cornerback David Amerson (WP: -19.47, NEP: -5.13).
7. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck gets the ball punched out by Denver Broncos’ linebacker Von Miller. Defensive end Shane Ray recovers it and runs it in for a touchdown (WP: -14.43, NEP: -7.66).
6. Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware puts the ball on the ground, and Houston Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson returns it 53 yards (WP: -17.77, NEP: -6.94).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!