All right, all right, all right. This obviously violates the "no-chalk" agenda pushed at the beginning. But with cheap options available at quarterback and tight end, you can almost guarantee that Cam Newton and Greg Olsen won't be as chalky as they should be.
Due to the historically higher scoring trends in domes, we want to target teams that normally play outside when they head indoors. That increases when the team going there is the Carolina Panthers and when they're facing a defense like the Atlanta Falcons'.
The Falcons currently sit 25th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which isn't great, but it's also not terrible. It takes a bit of a slide once you add some additional context.
Because a defense can better prepare for a pass when they have a big lead, quarterback efficiency declines in negative game flow. The Falcons have led for an average of 25:11 per game while trailing just 15:34, according to Football Outsiders. They've had teams in negative game script with regularity, as you can see when you look at the splits of opposing quarterbacks against them the first three weeks.
| Situation | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading or Tied | 35 | 6.41 | 0.18 | 45.71% |
| Trailing | 123 | 25.96 | 0.21 | 54.47% |
The point here isn't that opposing quarterbacks have performed worse in positive game script. With a sample of 35 drop backs, we can't definitively conclude that's actually the case. Rather, it's to show how well quarterbacks have performed against them in negative game script. That Success Rate while trailing would rank third among all quarterbacks if it were one individual. If they perform like that when they have the lead and know the opponent will likely be passing, what will the splits look like when we expand the sample in neutral or positive game script?
With the Panthers favored by three entering this game, they aren't likely face grotesquely negative game script. This should allow them to operate at higher efficiency than the teams before them, giving them gobs of upside. With the other tasty options on the board, it's hard to believe the ownership will reflect how great of a spot this is.
Obviously you want Newton on your squad, and this isn't a bad week to make room for him in your lineups. The same goes for Olsen, who has a 25.5% market share and is facing a team that has struggled against tight ends the past two years. But we shouldn't overlook Kelvin Benjamin.
Benjamin's dud last week will likely scare a good number of people out of using him. However, his snap rate in that game of 79.2% was actually his highest mark of the entire season. As the Panthers head indoors for an easier matchup this week, it would be wise to give Benjamin another shot despite the down performance.