For a game with an over/under of 46.5, there be a whole lotta bad defense involved. We shoudn't be just glossing over the Lions' struggles on the other side of the ball.
Through three weeks, no team has a worse Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play than the Lions. Sure, part of that is because they've faced Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck on the road, but the consistency of their inefficiencies is at least a bit concerning. Check out the game logs thus far while keeping in mind that the best individual season-long Passing NEP per drop back last year was 0.34.
| Quarterback | Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 47 | 18.74 | 0.38 | 46.95% |
| Marcus Mariota | 33 | 6.35 | 0.18 | 50.00% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 24 | 13.78 | 0.53 | 50.00% |
Both Luck and Rodgers had higher marks than the league's most efficient passer last year, and Marcus Mariota put forth his best performance of the season. It's still early, but we can probably say that their pass defense is no bueno.
To compound everything, the Lions currently have the second-highest situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders, meaning their opponents will be able to run more plays every game. That's beneficial for fantasy, and even more so when you see how much the Lions' defense has struggled.
The clear worry here isn't about the Lions' defense, but rather the Bears' offense. If they're a complete dumpster fire, then they might not be able to take advantage of the positive situation. That didn't seem to be the case with Brian Hoyer leading the charge in Week 3.
If we include Hoyer's drop backs when he filled in for Jay Cutler in Week 2, Hoyer is currently 12th in Passing NEP per drop back and third in Success Rate among the 36 quarterbacks with at least 30 drop backs. He has been really good in Cutler's absence, and he is more than capable of producing fantasy-relevant weeks for his pass catchers.
The hardest guy to decipher when it comes to the Bears right now is Alshon Jeffery. He has been productive when they have thrown his way, ranking sixth in Reception NEP per target of the 49 wide receivers with at least 20 targets. However, his market share is all the way down at 19.6%, a leap below team leader Kevin White at 26.5%. Meanwhile, White ranks second to last in Reception NEP per target and has largely been a detriment. How do we handle this?
Even though his salary is high and he'll see a good amount of Darius Slay, Jeffery should still be the more desirable target. In fact, that lofty price may scare people off of Jeffery, further incentivizing investing in him for tournaments. White's volume and price combo makes him a decent option, but Jeffery still holds the edge.
The other outlet here is obviously Zach Miller, who busted on the scene in a big way last week. Not only did he haul in a pair of touchdowns on nine targets, but he also played 100% of the snaps for the first time this season. The Lions have allowed three separate tight ends to finish as top-three weekly scorers against them already this season, and Miller could become the fourth if Hoyer looks his way as often as he did last week.