Over/Under: 48.5
Texans Implied Team Total: 25.75
Colts Implied Team Total: 22.75
This matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts not only boasts the second-highest over/under on the slate but also features two teams in the top-seven in offensive pace this season. The Colts have run the fifth-most offensive plays per game, while Houston ranks seventh. This should be a high-scoring game with a few different interesting fantasy options.
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
FanDuel Price: $7,900
Lamar Miller ranks third among running backs in touches (115), handling a workman-like 23 per game. Somehow, he has turned those 115 touches into exactly zero touchdowns. For some reference, he scored 10 touchdowns on 241 touches for a much-worse Miami Dolphins offense last season. Also, in terms of running backs with zero touchdowns this season, the next highest touch total is 57.
Positive touchdown regression is coming for Miller if he continues to see this many touches, and it could be coming in a big way against Indy, who has given up seven touchdowns (third-most) to opposing running backs this season. Indy hasn't just been giving up touchdowns to opposing backs, though. They also have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (fourth-worst) this season and rank third-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP on the year.
Game script sets up beautifully for Miller in this one too, as he is playing as a three-point favorite for the team with the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
Others to Consider
T.Y. Hilton has been absolutely killing the game with Donte Moncrief out of the picture, averaging 23.1 FanDuel points over his past three contests. His price is still a very palatable $7,900, and he should be heavily featured if the Colts fall behind in this one, as they are projected to. It's rarely advisable to utilize receivers against Johnathan Joseph and Houston's secondary, but Hilton may be the exception. Per Pro Football Focus, Joseph hasn't been used to shadow opposing receivers very often this season, staying locked into one side of the field for 82 percent of his snaps. Luckily, Hilton only runs 19 percent of his snaps to Joseph's side, instead more regularly occupying the slot, where he'll face an easier matchup against Kareem Jackson, who is still listed as day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
On the other side of the ball, DeAndre Hopkins is sure to have his hands full with Vontae Davis and is hard to recommend at his price tag. It's not going to feel good to go back to Will Fuller after his 0.9-point FanDuel performance last week, but his workload did remain consistent, with his fifth-consecutive game of at least six targets. He's averaging more FanDuel points on just two fewer targets than Nuk and will be facing far less smothering coverage.