Win Probability Added: +24.42
NEP: +10.04
By virtue of how WP works, and my calculations for this column, it is very hard for a big play early in a game to make the top-10 of our list. The later a game goes, the more extreme WP becomes, which means that a big play that saves the game or changes the lead late will always be more impactful than the same play early on. This is why it’s important to recognize how big of a play Philadelphia Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins’ interception in the second quarter on Sunday was.
With four minutes left until the half, Washington had first-and-10 inside Philadelphia territory. If the drive stalled out, Washington was still very much in field goal range and could put some points on the board to widen their 14-7 lead. Quarterback Kirk Cousins took the ball on a play-action fake, turned and saw pressure in his face immediately, and fired a lazy pass to tight end Vernon Davis. Jenkins was not fooled by the play-fake at all and stayed with Davis, creeping down until he could pounce on the pass. He chugged back upfield 64 yards for a pick-six that tied the game up before the break.