When I recommended three defensive tackles as your defensive line streamers a few weeks ago, we hit on just one of them (33 percent that week). Since Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is the one defensive tackle we’re recommending, he should hit then. That’s how probability works, right?

What probability tells us is to not expect big plays from Jarrett this week -- or the near future. Despite the fact that Jarrett is playing 45 percent of the Falcons’ snaps and has a 9 percent tackle rate on those snaps (eighth-most among defensive linemen), he has just one sack, one tackle for a loss, and one quarterback hit this year. He’s not getting a ton of disruption, but he’s always around the ball and making tackles. We like that just as much for fantasy.

The matchup against the Green Bay Packers this week is an interesting one, as Green Bay is allowing the 15th-highest stuff rate to opposing defenses. Most of this came with Eddie Lacy, however, a classic up-the-gut runner who might run into a pile of defenders frequently. Last week, the Packers’ spread offense with Ty Montgomery as the main running back was stuffed just once. They may transition back to a more traditional run game with Knile Davis this week, but be wary of depending on big plays here. Jarrett has a low floor, but a solid likelihood of earning a handful of tackles this week.

Jarrett is available in 98.6% of ESPN IDP leagues, and we project him for 3.04 tackles, 0.16 sacks, and a total score of 3.86 fantasy points in Week 8.