I wish I knew how to quit you, Aaron Rodgers.
The two spots where we generally prefer to pay down in tournaments are running back and quarterback. They don't possess the same single-game upside as a wide receiver, so we're handcuffing ourselves a bit by rolling out high-salary guys. And with Johnson being essentially a lock, adding in Rodgers would only further complicate things.
It's just so hard to lay off of him in matchups like this.
The Green Bay Packers' opponent -- the Tennessee Titans -- ranks 28th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. Over their past four games, all four opposing quarterbacks have thrown for at least 275 yards with two touchdowns, and they haven't generated an interception in that stretch. This includes matchups with masters of efficiency Cody Kessler and Blake Bortles, so things have turned south in a hurry for this team.
With all of the injuries the Packers have had at running back, you know by now that they're throwing the ball with heavy volume. With that, though, has come an increased efficiency that we didn't see earlier in the year.
| Time Frame | Dropbacks | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 Games | 190 | 24.55 | 0.13 | 45.79% |
| Past 3 Games | 145 | 32.74 | 0.23 | 51.03% |
Increased volume is great, but a jolt in efficiency is even better, especially entering a matchup like this.
The one giant, throbbing concern you have here is pace. The Titans' exotic smashmouth offense -- shockingly -- isn't scorching the Earth in that department. They rank 23rd in overall pace at one play every 29.02 seconds. That would lower the upside in both Rodgers and his receivers. Thankfully, though, we see a different Titans team when they have to make up a deficit, which could be the case this week.
In their three wins this season, the Titans have been able to just grind clock with DeMarco Murray, and it has allowed them to hold a pace of one play every 31.55 seconds. In their five losses, though, they've been running a decent tempo at one play every 27.02 seconds. It's still slower than most teams operate when trailing, but if you believe the Packers will build a lead in this game (they are 2.5-point favorites), pace should be less of an issue in this one.
The Titans have already allowed four different receivers to top 100 receiving yards against them, so you know we're going to be snagging exposure to Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb. Nelson's the guy who should top our lists, though.
In the middle part of the season, Nelson looked absolutely cooked. He finished with fewer than 40 receiving yards twice from Week 5 through Week 7, including a one reception for nine yards performance in the latter game of that stretch.
The past two games have been radically different, though. Nelson has 22 total targets, finishing with 94 yards and a touchdown both times. Five of those 22 targets have been in the red zone, pushing his red zone target market share to 30.4% for the season, fourth among all receivers. In our never-ending pursuit of upside, Nelson's the option who comes out smelling most rosy.