While we're on the subject of diminutive demons, Darren Sproles could absolutely ball out this weekend. It's just a perfect storm of Gucciness all coming together at once.
On its face, a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons isn't one to get your loins all tingly. We've seen that we can exploit them through the air, and with cornerback Desmond Trufant potentially dinged up, that allure would only grow. Their efficiency stats against the rush tell a different tale.
The Falcons rank 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, just edging the oft-targeted Washington rushing defense. We just don't get to see it that often given the leads their offense is generally able to build leads, forcing opposing teams to throw.
Vegas doesn't see that same script playing out in Week 10. This game is currently a pick 'em with an over/under of 50, putting the Eagles' implied team total all the way up at 25. This should be a competitive game that features a lot of points, and Sproles would likely be a big part of that.
After previously maxing out at 56.9% of the snaps back in Week 2, Sproles has been on the field for 80% of the Philadelphia Eagles' plays in back-to-back games. It had been evident for a while that Sproles was the team's lead back, but Philly coach Doug Pederson went ahead and confirmed that this week.
Eagles HC Doug Pederson on team's RB situation: "I would say that Darren (Sproles) is the No. 1 back right now."
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 7, 2016
This means you're getting a high-snap running back on a team with an implied team total of 25 points for just $5,100. That's not something we should be forgoing.
Sproles isn't known for his rushing abilities, but he has been solid this season. Both his 0.03 Rushing NEP per carry and 45.8% Success Rate are above the league average for high-volume backs. He should be able to excel when he carries the ball, and his passing-game involvement amps up our interest.
In the two games where Sproles has had his high snap rate, he has 16 targets, a 17.8% market share in the offense. The Falcons are one of only two teams to allow more than 53 targets to running backs this year, and their total is all the way up at 71. That's 7.89 targets per game. This is legitimately the ideal matchup for Sproles.
You're always going to run the risk of having Ryan Mathews vulture a touchdown, and that does hurt Sproles' ceiling. But with a price this low and a floor this high, we can accept some blemishes and plug Sproles in.