Most likely seed: 1 (84.60%)

Things aren't too tough for the Patriots. If they win (again, 68.57% odds), they're the 1 seed regardless of what happens elsewhere. There's still a path to homefield even with a loss, though.

If the Broncos can defeat the Raiders, then the Patriots will lock up the 1 seed no matter whether they defeat the Dolphins or not. As such, the Patriots' overall odds of claiming the top seed in the AFC are 84.60% when you combine these two scenarios. Their worst outcome is the 2 seed, which the algorithms see happening 15.40% of the time.