Similar to our bet on Toilolo, this bet seems like a value worth targeting.

LeGarrette Blount has scored a touchdown in 14 of 18 games this season, which is a little over 77% of the time. The moneyline value of -150 indicates there is only a 60% chance of this happening.

Another reason to like Blount's odds is the Falcons rush defense, or lack thereof. According to numberFire's Net Expected Points metric, the Falcons' Opponent Adjusted Defensive NEP per play against the rush ranks 30th out of 32 teams.

During the regular season, Atlanta allowed 15 rushing touchdowns over 16 games, which ranks as the 12th most in the league.

In a game where the total is 58.5 points, bookmakers are projecting around 8 touchdowns being scored.

Blount is likely to score a touchdown, but if you really want to gamble, Blount scoring the first touchdown of the game is +800.