Frankly, anything would look lovely when it follows a position as bloody as tight ends. And while defense busted at the second-highest rate behind said wreck of a position, there are some interesting takeaways here.
Let's lay things out in the table first with a few additions due to the uniqueness of the position. Only two chalky defenses were underdogs (both of which failed to reach value), so there is another split based on spread included around the mean value. This does help give us a bit of light.
| Bust Rates by Classification | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Home | 53.85% |
| Road | 48.00% |
| Favored | 48.98% |
| Underdogs | 100.00% |
| Favored by 6 or More | 48.00% |
| Favored by Less than 6 | 53.85% |
| Over/Under of 43 or Higher | 50.00% |
| Over/Under Below 43 | 52.17% |
| Implied Team Total of 19 or Higher | 52.38% |
| Implied Team Total Below 19 | 50.00% |
| Salary of $4,800 or Higher | 41.38% |
| Salary Below $4,800 | 63.64% |
When we shake things down to teams favored by six or more, we do see the bust rate come down. This should back up the theory that Vegas is instrumental in selecting a defense and special teams.
The surprising data point here was that teams at home had higher bust rates than those on the road. Almost half (25 of 51) of the chalky defenses were on the road, and they busted 12 times compared to 14 of 26 for the home teams. Neither mark is great, but it's possible that it's more okay to rally around a road defense than I would have assumed before this.
The huge split here came to salary. Easily the most acceptable category among chalky defenses was those that were priced at $4,800. The defenses cheaper than that busted a whopping 63.64% of the time. There were some issues when the price got above $5,200 (all three more expensive than that wound up as busts), but there was at least a bit of safety in targeting defenses that were up there in price.
We've got a few takeaways here. First, you probably don't want to use popular defenses ever. But if you are, they should probably be established defenses that come at a high price.
Additionally, Vegas is important, but it may not be enough to get us to have faith in chalky defenses. Even when teams had the spread, over/under, and implied team total in their favor, the bust rate didn't budge enough to get us excited. Overall, it's best to figure out which defenses are going to be popular, cross them off your tournament checklist, and go from there.