This is not a discussion for the faint of heart. You are encouraged to skip ahead if you have a pacemaker or are in the presence of children. Here we go.
As you'll recall, only 39.22% of all tight ends managed to hit their baseline value when coming at high ownership. That leaves us with a bust rate of 60.78%, leading to some disgusting numbers below.
| Bust Rates by Classification | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Home | 64.29% |
| Road | 56.52% |
| Favored | 56.25% |
| Underdogs | 68.42% |
| Over/Under of 47 or Higher | 58.62% |
| Over/Under Below 47 | 63.64% |
| Implied Team Total of 24 or Higher | 60.00% |
| Implied Team Total Below 24 | 61.90% |
| Salary of $6,000 or Higher | 63.64% |
| Salary Below $6,000 | 58.62% |
This position is bad, and it should feel bad. What makes it all worse is that there weren't even many categories that provided us a ray of hope.
The only category in which we had a split of at least 10 percentage points was when the teams were favored. The underdog tight ends busted 68.42% of the time, which means we absolutely want to avoid a chalky tight end when his team isn't favored. But even when they are, they still bust over half the time. We don't want that, either.
There were slight advantages to targeting a tight end on the road versus one at home and cheaper tight ends relative to expensive ones, but there is no secret code here. You basically just need to do whatever you can to avoid chalk at tight end, or else you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
That's the main takeaway here, and failing to get any additional insights at an entire position is a bit disappointing. Things do perk up a tiny bit when we turn to defenses.