Positional ADP: QB25 | Projected Finish: QB33
The Houston Texans got historically bad quarterback play last year, so they traded up to draft Deshaun Watson. He's a high first-round pick on a team with a need, and he's available late in drafts, so he should be a perfect late round quarterback target, right? Not so fast.
The numberFire projections for 2017 project Watson as just the 33rd-best quarterback -- right behind projected starter Tom Savage. Perhaps you're thinking the pundits are wrong, and Watson will be the Week 1 starter (and keep the job all year). That doesn't help much.
Here are the most similar projections that result if we give all of the Texans passing work to Watson.
| Quarterback | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 2,061 | 12 | 10 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1,429 | 7 | 6 |
| Savage-Watson Combined | 3,490 | 19 | 16 |
| Alex Smith | 3,492 | 20 | 14 |
| Jared Goff | 3,568 | 21 | 18 |
If you want to risk a draft pick on Watson being a full-year starter, even if his ceiling is that of Alex Smith or Jared Goff, then go for it. As for me, I'll be fading Watson.
Instead Try
If you're in the market for a late-round passer, try Sam Bradford. He's drafted later than Watson, and he has more job security. He's projected to be QB22. That's close enough to league average to keep you competitive, and it's safe enough that you don't need to hedge your bets. Bradford also has a nice early-season schedule.