Positional ADP: WR66 | Projected Finish: WR80
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Marqise Lee had a career-best season last year, outperforming teammate Allen Hurns and averaging within a point per game (standard scoring) of Allen Robinson. Given how inexpensive he was to acquire, that made him a nice bonus for teams which rostered him.
Don't expect a repeat in 2017.
The key to Lee's 2016 performance was availability. Specifically, he was available for all 16 games for the first time in his career while Hurns dealt with injuries, missing 5 games and struggling in several others. When Hurns was involved in the offense, which I'll define as getting two or more targets, Lee's performance suffered.
| Marqise Lee Stat | Hurns With At Least 2 Targets | Hurns With Less Than 2 Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| Receptions | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Yards | 52.9 | 53.7 |
| TDs | 0.1 | 0.33 |
On a per-game basis, Lee produced about 1.5 more standard points per game more when Hurns was dinged up. Well, guess what. Hurns is healthy again.
Over the past three years, Hurns (0.64 Reception NEP per target average) has been a better performer than Lee (0.56 Reception NEP per target). That's illustrated by comparing Hurns' 2015 campaign to Lee's 2016. On an identical number of targets (105), Hurns produced 97 Reception NEP versus a Reception NEP clip of 74 for Lee.
As long as Hurns is healthy, I'm staying away from Lee.
Instead Try
Sticking with the Jags, try Hurns. Their ADP is separated by just a single spot, but we project Hurns to finish as WR61 while Lee comes in at WR80. That's the difference between a guy who could start in the flex spot during bye weeks and a player you'll cut midseason.