Davante Adams looks like the poster boy for negative touchdown regression in 2017, according to our NEP metric. His 12 touchdowns on 90.08 Reception Net Expected Points "should've" been closer to 6.62.

The only other receiver (of 29) with at least 12 touchdowns since 2009 with a Reception NEP below 100.00 was James Jones in 2012 (14 touchdowns on a Reception NEP of 82.88).

The constant there is Aaron Rodgers, of course, and the fact that Adams is tied to an offense that's ranked top-10 in Adjusted Passing NEP per play in seven of the past nine years suggests he can provide fantasy stats even without a ton of volume.

But if he did convert just six or seven touchdowns, he'd have finished as the WR18. He also failed to post 1,000 yards (he had 997) on 121 targets, which basically doesn't happen with Rodgers as your quarterback.

Last year's WR10 in PPR points per game actually has a realistic ADP of WR21, and he ranked 19th in contested catch rate in 2016, according to PlayerProfiler, despite eight drops. It's certainly not all bad.

The addition of Martellus Bennett, the potential renaissance of Randall Cobb, and a receiving back in Ty Montgomery all could cause Adams' production to plummet.

The cost is fair, but the floor suggests he had bust potential if he falls down the pecking order in this offense.