This isn't about Keenan Allen's health (well, it's a little about that, as you can't be willing to burn pick 3.06 as if it's the 13.06) so much as it is about everything else.

It's not the best idea to rely on schedule strength for the upcoming season, but it's safe to say that the Los Angeles Chargers don't have an easy pass-game schedule.

They start with the Denver Broncos in Week 1, our projected number-one pass defense and the fourth-ranked secondary by ProFootballFocus' preseason rankings.

In Weeks 2 through 4, the Chargers host the Dolphins (16th in our projections and 19th by PFF's ranks), the Kansas City Chiefs (4th, 10th), and the Philadelphia Eagles (2nd (because of the pass rush), 32nd). Then it's the New York Giants (5th, 1st), Raiders (23rd, 14th), Broncos again, and New England Patriots (13th, 2nd). in New England. Then they get the Jags (11th, 6th) in Week 10 after a bye. Yikes.

It eases up a little bit after that, but those are some rough individual matchups for Allen. The likely absence of rookie Mike Williams helps out with volume concerns, but he still has to contend with Melvin Gordon, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, and Tyrell Williams, who ranked seven in Reception NEP per catch among 41 receivers with at least 100 targets last season.

Our algorithms project Allen to finish as the WR21 in PPR formats, well below his ADP of WR15.