Why This Is Bold: The early-down running back gig isn't yet solidified as Gillislee's, and he's being selected at RB21 in drafts.

Why This Will Happen: Mike Gillislee broke our database last year. He finished the season with a 0.30 Rushing NEP per rush average to go along with a 57.43% Success Rate. That's the first time our expected points model has seen a 100-plus attempt running back hit those two marks.

That's what this bold prediction is all about: What if Gillislee is actually really, really good? What if he takes over the Blount role in the Patriots offense and has elite opportunity?

That could -- and I stress the word "could" -- be lethal.

Blount saw 29 attempts within his opponent's 5-yard line last season, a number only matched by Arian Foster over the last half decade. And it's not unreasonable to think a New England back can see a hefty market share in the offense. Last year, Blount carried 62.03% of New England's touches, good for the ninth-highest share in football. He saw a similar per-game rate in 2015 (he missed four games, but paced towards a 57% market share), and in 2012, Stevan Ridley ended the year with a 55.45% rushing attempt market share for the Pats.

So in three of the last five seasons, New England has had a workhorse back. It's not unreasonable to think Gillislee -- who has a skillset that's broader than Blount's and, again, has shown a ton of upside -- could take that on.