One minute, Sterling Shepard was a red zone star, and the next, a fantasy pariah. Once Brandon Marshall signed with the New York Giants in March, Shepard’s ADP quickly dropped from an early 9th-round pick to flier status in the 13th. Given Marshall's presence, it's a fair landing spot in drafts, but it's not hard to imagine Shepard matching or exceeding his touchdown output from last season this time around.

Shepard’s eight touchdowns last season came in a down year for the Giants’ offense. Their 310 points ranked 26th in the league, and were 110 points fewer than they'd scored just one year before. New York had over 25% fewer red zone receiving opportunities than in 2015, and over 40% fewer than in 2014. Even a marginal positive regression back to the output from those seasons -- both offenses coordinated by head coach Ben McAdoo -- would mean more opportunities for Shepard.

Marshall’s presence could actually open up more room for Shepard, as teams key in on Marshall and Odell Beckham. If he can come close to matching his 75% red zone success rate, he'd pay off as a big-time sleeper at his current price. —Ian Goldsmith