Like Miami, Oakland, and Houston, the Giants' record in 2016 made them look better than their underlying metrics. Unlike those other squads, Big Blue looks to once again be one of the better teams in the league.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Proj. Rec | Playoffs | SB | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1.73 | 8.0-8.0 | 38.0% | 2.4% | 17 | 9 |
| 11 | New York Giants | 1.76 | 8.4-7.6 | 39.1% | 4.0% | 24 | 3 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 1.85 | 8.8-7.2 | 53.7% | 4.3% | 18 | 7 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.34 | 8.5-7.5 | 43.6% | 3.6% | 19 | 4 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 2.41 | 8.4-7.6 | 44.5% | 3.3% | 28 | 1 |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.44 | 8.9-7.1 | 57.0% | 5.2% | 15 | 8 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 2.46 | 8.6-7.4 | 46.4% | 4.6% | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 2.47 | 8.9-7.1 | 53.9% | 5.1% | 22 | 2 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 2.47 | 8.7-7.3 | 50.1% | 4.0% | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.59 | 8.5-7.5 | 44.1% | 3.9% | 3 | 27 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 4.30 | 9.2-6.8 | 56.5% | 6.6% | 4 | 15 |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 9.22 | 10.6-5.4 | 84.1% | 17.1% | 1 | 12 |
The Giants went 11-5 with 8.8 Pythagorean wins, thanks to an 8-3 record in one-score games; they only gained 0.1 more yards per play than they allowed and tied for 14th in the league in Adjusted NEP per play differential. Some regression is coming, but that does not change the fact that their defense is still loaded with talent and should again be one of the NFL's best.
After finishing second in Adjusted NEP allowed per play last season, the Giants are projected to be third on defense in 2017, ranking in the top five against both the run and pass. Offensively, they tied for 26th last season and are projected to improve slightly to 24th this year. They added wide receiver Brandon Marshall, but Eli Manning is 36 and his net yards per pass average has declined in each of the last two seasons.
Also, for as good as the Giants could be, they only have the third-best projection in their own division. The Eagles' defense may not be as good as New York’s, but it's not far off -- Philadelphia was fifth in Adjusted NEP allowed in 2016 and is projected to finish fourth this season.
The Eagles should also be a better offensive team, and we project them to be 19th on this side of the ball. It won’t make anyone forget about the 1999 Rams, but it figures to be adequate enough given the strength of the defense. Philadelphia had a strong season last year and tied for ninth in point differential, but undershot its 9-7 Pythagorean record by going 1-6 in one-score games.
The only defenses better than Philadelphia and New York look to be in Minnesota and Denver. The Broncos led the league in Defensive NEP by a wide margin last year, and while their offense was poor, they still finished fourth in Adjusted NEP per play differential.
Minnesota was not only eighth by that measure, but also third in defense, and they look to be even better this year. Offensively, Sam Bradford did his part, leading a passing attack that was tied for 11th in Passing NEP per drop back after opponent adjustments. The league’s worst-rushing attack weighed the offense down, but the unit as a whole still projects to be adequate enough in 2017 to complement the defense.
This combination could make the Vikings sneaky contenders in the NFC.