This group features two more of the league’s biggest overachievers in 2016.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Proj. Rec | Playoffs | SB | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.15 | 8.4-7.6 | 44.1% | 2.8% | 11 | 22 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.12 | 7.8-8.2 | 34.5% | 2.1% | 20 | 11 |
| 20 | Oakland Raiders | 0.12 | 7.8-8.2 | 32.3% | 2.0% | 7 | 26 |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 0.13 | 7.8-8.2 | 32.2% | 2.1% | 21 | 10 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | 0.45 | 8.5-7.5 | 47.0% | 3.3% | 25 | 5 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.45 | 7.8-8.2 | 31.1% | 2.3% | 16 | 14 |
| 16 | Buffalo Bills | 0.45 | 7.8-8.2 | 32.0% | 1.9% | 10 | 20 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.51 | 8.5-7.5 | 48.5% | 3.3% | 12 | 16 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.90 | 8.5-7.5 | 48.0% | 3.6% | 9 | 21 |
| 13 | Washington Redskins | 1.36 | 8.2-7.8 | 36.1% | 3.1% | 6 | 23 |
Oakland made the playoffs for the first time since losing Super Bowl XXXVII, but seemed to also be the beneficiary of some good fortune. The Raiders won 12 games but outscored their opponents by less than two points per contest -- the 3.3-game difference between their actual record and Pythagorean record was the fourth largest since 1989, according to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.
They pulled this off by going 9-2 in one-score games and 8-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. A look at things on a per-play basis further indicates that Oakland was closer to mediocrity than their record indicates. The Raiders allowed 0.4 more yards per play than they gained (6.1 to 5.7; no team allowed more yards per play). In terms of Adjusted NEP per play, Oakland gained 0.12 and conceded 0.12.
Looking ahead to 2017, the Raiders are projected to finish with a top-eight offense and bottom-seven defense for the second straight year.
Houston (8-4 in one-score games) was outscored and outgained on a per-play basis last season. Their defense was outstanding even without J.J. Watt, but the offense was atrocious. Watt is back and Brock Osweiler is gone, so they could be improved, though their record almost certainly will not show it -- we do not see them as more than an average team. However, that should still be enough to make them competitive in the AFC South.
We also have the Pittsburgh Steelers lower than they are elsewhere, as our forecasts have a bottom-12 defense holding them back somewhat. The unit ranked 16th in yards allowed per play and 19th in Adjusted NEP per play last season.
An offense that was in the top eight should presumably keep them in the AFC hunt this year, as will their schedule, which should be easier than average. We project them to post one of the 10 best records in the league and give them the eighth-highest playoff odds.