This bottom portion of the league contains some teams we'd expect: Cleveland, the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco, and the Jets could all conceivably get the top pick in the 2018 draft, while Chicago could also be a part of that race.
There are also a few surprises, though, including a pair of teams who made the playoffs last season. Detroit and Miami both made it to the postseason, but will have to overcome a lot to get back.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Proj. Rec | Playoffs | SB | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | -7.92 | 5.7-10.3 | 6.1% | 0.2% | 27 | 32 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Rams | -7.47 | 5.9-10.1 | 8.0% | 0.2% | 32 | 17 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | -6.24 | 6.2-9.8 | 11.2% | 0.2% | 26 | 29 |
| 29 | New York Jets | -4.80 | 6.6-9.4 | 13.5% | 0.5% | 31 | 18 |
| 28 | Chicago Bears | -4.36 | 6.8-9.2 | 15.6% | 0.5% | 23 | 25 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | -2.66 | 7.6-8.4 | 28.2% | 1.2% | 14 | 28 |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.65 | 7.7-8.3 | 29.2% | 1.4% | 30 | 13 |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | -1.89 | 7.3-8.7 | 21.5% | 1.0% | 8 | 31 |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | -0.80 | 7.6-8.4 | 27.6% | 1.5% | 13 | 24 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | -0.68 | 8.2-7.8 | 42.3% | 2.7% | 29 | 6 |
They both actually had negative point differentials last season, but finished above .500 thanks to strong records in one-score games: the Dolphins were 8-2 in such contests, while the Lions went 8-5.
Countless studies have shown there is virtually no correlation between a team’s record in close games from one year to the next. Point differential tends to predict future performance better than a team’s win-loss record in the previous season, even for extreme outliers. This implies that Miami and Detroit are indeed below-average teams.
We think the Lions should have a top-10 offense this year, but this will be more than offset by a defense that we project will be second-worst in the league. This is similar to last year, as Detroit finished eighth in opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points per play on offense, but dead last on defense.
Miami will be less extreme, but is forecasted to finish in the middle of the pack on offense and in the bottom 10 on defense.
Tennessee is another team in this group that stands out, as the Titans could contend to win the AFC South. We like their offense enough and see it finishing in the top half of the league again, after it was 13th in Adjusted NEP per play in 2016. Poor pass defense held the Titans out of the playoffs last year, as they finished 24th in Adjusted NEP allowed per play and 28th against the pass.
Our projections see Tennessee as a bottom-five defense this year, despite some nice offseason pickups in the secondary. Even if these moves don’t improve the pass defense, we still give the Titans almost a 30.0% chance to make the playoffs, thanks to an easy projected schedule and less-than-stellar division competition.