Jacksonville lost by 10 points at home but moved up to the top spot in our rankings. How did that happen?
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Washington Redskins | 2.54 | 3-2 | 39.20% | 18 | 7 | -8 |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | 2.58 | 4-2 | 58.30% | 16 | 9 | 1 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 2.98 | 4-2 | 60.70% | 6 | 20 | -3 |
| 9 | New England Patriots | 3.52 | 4-2 | 82.50% | 2 | 31 | -4 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.71 | 4-2 | 65.60% | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 3.8 | 3-2 | 55.20% | 23 | 3 | -4 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 4.44 | 3-2 | 55.90% | 7 | 18 | 7 |
| 5 | Houston Texans | 4.53 | 3-3 | 51.30% | 14 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.07 | 4-2 | 84.40% | 12 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5.52 | 5-1 | 93.30% | 3 | 15 | 3 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.27 | 5-1 | 97.00% | 1 | 19 | -1 |
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.93 | 3-3 | 60.60% | 8 | 1 | 1 |
The simple answer is Jacksonville’s offense outplayed the Rams' defense, and the Jacksonville defense had the better of the Los Angeles offense. The Jaguars' offense produced 6.8 NEP compared to -3.9 for the Rams.
This was still a Jaguars loss because of special teams miscues that would have made Sunday’s Falcons blush. Here is a look at some of them:
| Event | NEP Value |
|---|---|
| Rams kickoff return touchdown | -6.3 |
| 16-yard punt | -1.64 |
| Rams 56-yard field goal | -1.38 |
| Rams 53-yard punt, no return | -1.1 |
| 28-yard punt | -0.9 |
| Missed 54-yard field goal | -4.7 |
Fortunately for Jacksonville, offensive and defensive performance is more consistent than special teams performance, so it would be prudent not to overstate Sunday’s loss.
Elsewhere, Pittsburgh’s nERD rank finally is indicative of the preseason hype in the Steel City. As mentioned, the Steelers win on Sunday in Kansas City was more impressive than the final score indicated.
Their offense is still not producing like many thought it would before the season, but the defense has actually picked up a lot of the slack. Pittsburgh is sixth in NEP allowed per play and also ranks in the Top 10 against the pass (fifth) and run (seventh).
They have done so without being overly reliant on turnovers, ranking 3rd in yards allowed per play (4.6) but 18th in turnovers per drive.
They are joined in the Top 5 by their fellow Pennsylvanians in Philadelphia, who have been one of the more consistent teams in the league this year. Like the Steelers, the Eagles have subverted expectations in terms of their dominant unit. While the Eagles’ defense has been fine so far, it has yet to reach the heights it reached last year, while their offense has gone into another gear.
Carson Wentz is making plays down the field, something that was lacking during his rookie reason, and he is directing the league’s fourth-most productive passing offense.
At this point, a Keystone State Super Bowl doesn't see too farfetched.