The Falcons’ home loss to the Dolphins had some of the makings of a fluke, but the reigning NFC Champions have still had some real struggles this year, particularly on defense.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.9 | 2-3 | 13.30% | 13 | 23 | 0 |
| 21 | New York Giants | -0.61 | 1-5 | 2.10% | 22 | 13 | +2 |
| 20 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.12 | 2-3 | 25.30% | 24 | 8 | -2 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.13 | 2-4 | 7.80% | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 0.24 | 3-3 | 28.80% | 29 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.39 | 2-3 | 14.80% | 5 | 29 | -1 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | 1.18 | 4-2 | 53.20% | 10 | 16 | +5 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 1.2 | 3-2 | 36.40% | 4 | 25 | -6 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.69 | 3-2 | 63.60% | 19 | 12 | 0 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | 2.18 | 3-2 | 58.90% | 20 | 5 | -3 |
As you might expect, Atlanta outplayed Miami for large stretches of Sunday’s game, out-gaining them by 50 yards and 1.6 yards per play.
The game swung largely because of incredibly costly special teams blunders on the part of Atlanta, including a 26-yard punt and botched snap on a punt -- these are important events to a game’s outcome but not necessarily repeatable ones.
Atlanta’s average drive started at its own 20.7 yard line -- compared to the Dolphins, whose average start was almost 10 yards further up the field.
Matt Ryan still leads an offense that is fourth overall in NEP, but the defense ranks 25th. The Dolphins, the league’s least efficient offense, actually had their highest NEP output of the season Sunday.
The Falcons rank 24th in NEP allowed per drop back and 30th in NEP allowed per rush -- numbers that will have to improve for Atlanta to make another Super Bowl run.
So, while the most impactful moments of Sunday’s game -- the special teams errors -- probably aren’t the signs of an overarching problem, the Falcons’ D is an actual cause for concern.