Some fans may be surprised to see the Jets ranked so low, but a quick look at the numbers shows their rating is warranted.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Indianapolis Colts | -13.24 | 2-4 | 1.50% | 31 | 32 | 0 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | -9.97 | 0-6 | 0.00% | 25 | 30 | -1 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | -8.84 | 0-6 | 0.00% | 26 | 26 | +1 |
| 29 | New York Jets | -6.89 | 3-3 | 5.10% | 21 | 24 | -1 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | -4.84 | 2-4 | 2.40% | 17 | 28 | -4 |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals | -4.7 | 3-3 | 12.50% | 28 | 21 | -1 |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | -4.62 | 3-2 | 14.10% | 32 | 10 | +1 |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | -4.15 | 2-4 | 2.30% | 27 | 17 | 4 |
| 24 | Tennessee Titans | -3.94 | 3-3 | 26.40% | 15 | 27 | +1 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | -3.16 | 3-3 | 27.60% | 30 | 11 | -3 |
Yes, the Jets have won three games and gave New England a challenge. They have indeed exceeded their incredibly modest preseason expectations; there was talk before the season about whether or not they would even win a game.
Still, here are there wins -- a 14-point home win over the hapless Dolphins, an overtime home victory against Jacksonville in which Blake Bortles reminded us he was still Blake Bortles (42.8% completion percentage, 9.3 yards per completion) and a 3-point road win over Cleveland, fueled largely by the Browns' special teams blunders.
Overall, the Jets have a negative point differential and a second-half schedule that promises to be a lot less forgiving.
Elsewhere, analytics-minded NFL fans may want to start stretching, because it is looking more and more likely they will be able to take a victory lap regarding the Raiders.
Last season, Oakland did not outscore its opponents by much but thrived in close games, which is hardly a recipe for long-term success. We projected that they would go 8-8 before the season, but thanks to their current four-game losing streak, the Raiders will need to play at a 10-win pace the rest of the way just to meet this middling projection and would have to win out to match last season’s improbable 12-4 mark.
In terms of NEP, Oakland’s offense has been about average this season, and that has not been nearly good enough to compensate for a defense that has been one of the league’s worst.