The Atlanta Falcons were efficient in 2016. Very, very efficient. They lead the league by scoring 0.55 points per play. For context, no other team reached 0.43 points per play last year. This season, the league leader is the Rams at 0.50 points per play. You have to go back to the 2011 Green Bay Packers during Aaron Rodgers' MVP season to find comparable offensive output. Even the offensive juggernaut that was the 2007 New England Patriots fall short at 0.52 points per play.

So, clearly the Falcons were bound to regress. Through his first eight seasons Matt Ryan owned a career touchdown rate of 4.5 percent. Last year, that figure spiked all the way up to 7.1 percent. For reference, there have only been 19 occurrences in the history of the league where a quarterback started all 16 regular season games and was able to post a touchdown rate of 7.0 percent or greater. No one has ever done it in consecutive seasons, and only Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers have accomplished the feat twice.

But regression doesn't mean the bottom falls out. In fact, this year's version of the Falcons is still a top-10 offense based on our scheduled-adjusted metrics. While Ryan's touchdown rate has shrunk to 3.9 percent, his yards per attempt (7.8) is the third-best of his career. Julio Jones has scored only three touchdowns but sits third in receiving yards. Despite having the impressive running back duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman each miss games, Atlanta is 10th in rushing yards.

This week we'll see the 2016 NFC champions do battle with the Carolina Panthers, who claimed the George Halas Trophy in 2015. Carolina has already secured a spot in the playoffs, but they can claim the NFC South with a win against the Falcons coupled with an unlikely Saints loss to the Buccaneers. As for Atlanta, their only hope to make the postseason is beating the Panthers and squeaking in as the sixth seed.