Prior to their Week 10 bye, the Baltimore Ravens had lost five of their last seven games and seemed rudderless as owners of a 4-5 record. In addition to getting a week to regroup, a friendly schedule also boosted the outlook in Charm City. Over the last six weeks, Baltimore has sprung back to life by winning five of six to improve their record to 9-6. Now their path to making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 is clear.
In traditional Ravens fashion, the defense has led the way. Based on our metrics, Baltimore ranks second to the Jacksonville Jaguars in both overall defense and pass defense. In the box score, the Ravens have pitched three shutouts and had held their opponents under 21 points on nine occasions. They also lead the league in interceptions and are tied for seventh in sacks.
A win against the Cincinnati Bengals is the easy way for Baltimore to wrap up the first Wild Card spot, but they have a whole bunch of additional outs in the event they were to stumble at home.
Speaking of the Jaguars, they'll face the Tennessee Titans who have lost three consecutive games and now need this victory to get into the playoffs. Despite struggling all season long while dealing with various ailments, the Titans will finally sit DeMarco Murray due to a knee injury.
In his place will be one of the most intriguing running back prospects in the league, Derrick Henry. A quick glance at the table below highlights just how much better Henry -- a speed-size freak of an athlete -- has been than Murray in terms of Net Expected Points (or NEP, which is our metric to explain how many points a player either adds or subtracts from his team versus expectation). We'll also look at Success Rate, which is the percentage of carries that resulted in positive NEP.
| Running Back | Carries | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 184 | -0.12 | 30.43% |
| Derrick Henry | 148 | 0.0 | 43.92% |
Keeping it on the ground would be a wise move for the Titans. While our metrics credit Jacksonville as a middle-tier run defense, Sharp Football Stats has Jacksonville 28th in Rushing Success Rate on the season. And since Week 13, the Jags are also 28th in Explosive Run Rate, meaning they are among the league leaders in allowing runs of 10 yards or more during that span.