The Jaguars and the Rams both came into 2017 with solid defenses but offenses that looked like they would keep both teams in the league's bottom tier.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2.10 | 10-6 | 2.1% | 5 | 24 | +1 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.50 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 22 | 3 | -1 |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.83 | 10-6 | 1.5% | 9 | 15 | +4 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | 3.63 | 11-5 | 2.0% | 15 | 7 | 0 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 5.20 | 13-3 | 25.3% | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 6.58 | 11-5 | 6.3% | 7 | 10 | -2 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.21 | 13-3 | 14.3% | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.41 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 6 | 9 | +2 |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | 8.14 | 11-5 | 7.3% | 3 | 12 | -1 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 9.27 | 13-3 | 18.5% | 8 | 2 | +1 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.42 | 10-6 | 7.1% | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 9.6 | 13-3 | 14.9% | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Both defenses did reach new heights this season, but vast improvements on offense are the real reason both teams can realistically think about the Super Bowl.
For the Rams, offensive leap was pretty straightforward: Jared Goff took a massive leap from year one to year two, as in 2016, Goff put together one of the worst campaigns for a rookie quarterback but led an offense that was tied for sixth in passing NEP per play in 2017.
Jacksonville's surprising top 10 offensive finish was partially due to improvements in the run game (the Jaguars were fourth in rushing NEP per carry) and its ability to minimize the role of quarterback Blake Bortles. No team threw the ball less frequently than Jacksonville and while the results of his passes were better (the team was tied for 12th in passing NEP per dropback), this seems to be more of a product of his receivers doing work after the catch.
The only two teams in the top 12 that declined relative to their preseason projections were the two Super Bowl participants, as Atlanta and New England both fell by seven spots. The Patriots continued to be their dominant selves on offense but were held back by a defense that was one of the league's worst.
The Falcons were still a strong offense but they failed to reach the heights they reached on offense in 2016.