This next group's biggest overachievers are two teams from the NFC North, but while one may be optimistic about its future, the other probably found 2017 to be a disappointment (though both teams fired their coach).
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | -3.42 | 9-7 | 0.5% | 21 | 21 | +1 |
| 21 | Denver Broncos | -3.18 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 31 | 5 | -1 |
| 19 | Green Bay Packers | -2.28 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 13 | 23 | -4 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.28 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 12 | 27 | +2 |
| 18 | Chicago Bears | -1.86 | 5-11 | 0.0% | 27 | 8 | -2 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | -1.72 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 11 | 25 | +2 |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.52 | 8-8 | 0.0% | 30 | 6 | +2 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | -0.55 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 16 | 16 | +2 |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 0.63 | 7-9 | 0.0% | 20 | 11 | -3 |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.68 | 9-7 | 0.0% | 14 | 13 | -1 |
Largely on the strength of a strong defense, Chicago finished the year 10 spots higher than we projected they would in the preseason. The Bears were solid against both the pass (13th) and the run (9th), though the Mitchell Trubisky-led offense actually underachieved relative to preseason expectations. Still, the defensive performance was strong enough to push Chicago into the top 20.
Detroit also improved by 10 spots since September, but they did not make a second straight playoff appearance. The Lions' defense took a big step forward (we had them projected to finish 31st in NEP) but the offense took a sizable step back (they were pegged to be 8th). Matthew Stafford had a solid season and finished 10th in Passing NEP, but a complete inability to do anything on the ground held the Lions back as Detroit tied for 31st in Rushing NEP per play.
The biggest underachievers in this section had Super Bowl aspirations before the season. In his seven starts, Aaron Rodgers actually underperformed relative to his high standards. He was 13th in Passing NEP per drop back among those with at least 200 dropbacks, but his absence was still a big reason the Packers finished 15 slots lower than they were projected to. Backup Brett Hundley struggled badly, throwing 9 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while averaging 4.8 net yards per drop back. The performance here was not nearly good enough to compensate for a defense that was poor for most of the season.
Dallas also finished 15 spots lower, and despite Ezekiel Elliott missing time with a suspension and inconsistency from Dak Prescott, defensive issues were the main culprit. Per our metrics, the Cowboys were 11th on offense (1st in rushing) and 25th in defense. They did a solid job at containing big plays, which is partly why they only allowed 5.1 yards per play, but they still allowed offenses to move the ball consistently. Their Success Rate allowed (the percentage of plays that yielded positive NEP) was 45.2%, while the league average is about 42%.
It was a bend-but-don't-break unit that bent too far too often.