The trends say that starting Blake Bortles in his first career playoff game makes sense. (What could go wrong?)

The aforementioned Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills. The Jags have lost their last two games, while the Bills have made the playoffs for the first time in 17 years, and in dramatic fashion. Still, bookmakers have made Jacksonville a very strong favorite at home. And Bortles has performed well as a favorite this season.

An average of 21.6 half-PPR points per game is a very solid clip. And Bortles' average was even higher when the Jags were favored by a touchdown or more.

Bortles has burned many of us in past seasons, but he has been great for fantasy football this year. Bortles is priced at $7,600, which ranks fifth of the eight starting quarterbacks this weekend. He makes for a sneaky play in all formats.