As mentioned with the Vikings, pass rushing has not been a strength for the Patriots this year. And even with the improvements they've made on defense, they're still outside the top 10 there from Week 10 on. But a newer weakness in this offense is its ability to keep opponents away from Tom Brady.
The Patriots' offense finished the year ranked 12th in both Sack NEP per drop back and sack rate. Their Sack NEP per drop back ranks seventh out of 12 playoff teams, meaning they're a bit behind where you'd expect them to be. When you adjust for opponent, down, and distance, they're 14th, according to Football Outsiders.
This has become even more apparent in the time since right tackle Marcus Cannon got hurt. He missed Week 3 due to an ankle injury, played the next five games, and then was placed on injured reserve for the second half of the year. Here's a look at the team's splits with and without Cannon at right tackle.
Patriots in 2017 | Sack NEP per Drop Back | Sack Rate |
---|---|---|
With Marcus Cannon | -0.06 | 5.52% |
Without Marcus Cannon | -0.11 | 5.83% |
If they had -0.11 Sack NEP per drop back for the full season, they would have ranked 16th, putting them ahead of only the Bills among teams in the playoffs. This accounts for the situation in which the sacks occur, which is why we put more stock into that than their sack rate, which changed a bit less.
Their most likely opponent in the second round -- the Chiefs -- ranked 27th defensively in Sack NEP per drop back, meaning they likely wouldn't be able to expose this weakness. But in the conference championship, they are likely to face either the Jaguars or Steelers, who ranked first and third, respectively, in this mark. If the Patriots can't make up for Cannon's absence before then, it could spell trouble in New England.