What coulda been. Get back soon, Carson Wentz.
Nick Foles started his time as the starter off well, throwing for four touchdowns against the New York Giants in Week 15. That made it look as if the team would be just fine without Wentz on the field.
The advanced analytics, though, were just not good at all.
Here's a comparison between Wentz and Foles with their ranks in the two key categories for quarterbacks. The rankings are out of 45 quarterbacks who had at least 100 drop backs in the regular season. It's obvious that Foles is not on par with Wentz, but the gap between the two is frightening.
| In 2017 | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Rank | Success Rate | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 0.25 | 4th | 47.65% | 11th |
| Nick Foles | -0.01 | 26th | 39.62% | 38th |
Woof.
A contributing factor in Foles' poor metrics was a fumble he had in garbage time against the Broncos, which was returned for a touchdown. We shouldn't kill him for something that was meaningless in the grand scheme of things. But that counts as just one drop back in his Success Rate, and he was still among the worst quarterbacks in the league by that metric. This should make it clear just how much Wentz was helping the offense when he was healthy because they're just not the same under Foles.
The Eagles could wind up playing the Saints in the second round, and although their pass rush is not what it used to be, their secondary is still oozing talent. That's the type of team that could give Foles fits. Unless he picks up his play from where it was down the stretch, Eagles fans will be left wondering what could have been had Wentz not gone down.