Analyzing fantasy football isn't as simple as looking at previous season numbers and drawing current season conclusions from them. Things change. Teams change. Players get more experience.

And that last point is an important one for George Kittle. It's not like he lit the fantasy football world on fire with his performance last year, as he saw just 10.80% of the team's targets once Jimmy Garoppolo took over. Kittle was also on the receiving end of just one of Jimmy G's seven touchdowns.

So why be optimistic? Why should we be targeting George Kittle in drafts?

The tight end position is one that takes a little time to get going. Only eight tight ends in NFL history have caught 50 or more passes as rookies, so let's not make too big a deal out of Kittle's first-year numbers. Not only that, but Kittle was actually pretty efficient per target -- his 8.17 yards per target rate ranked 15th all time among rookie tight ends with 20 or more catches.

Kittle's opportunity should be there in 2018, though. There's no stud receiver in the offense that will absolutely demand 25% to 30% of the team's targets, giving Kittle plenty of target share upside. And by drafting Kittle, you're associating your tight end with an offense that could be really, really good.

The sample size is small, but when Garoppolo became starter last year, the 49ers ranked first in yards and scores per drive. They struggled a bit finding the end zone given their yards per drive rate, but that also tells us that there may be some positive regression coming in that department if they were to keep things up. Garoppolo actually had just a 3.9% touchdown rate, which is a below-average one.

When you're looking for a late-round tight end, you should be targeting one with a path to top-five upside. Given some of the pass-catching uncertainty in San Francisco to go along with the probability of the 49ers being strong offensively, Kittle makes a lot of sense at his average draft position this year.