Just because Patrick Mahomes has a big arm doesn't mean we should just assume the Chiefs' offense will get more vertical in 2018. Or, I should say, we shouldn't assume the Chiefs' offense will be as efficient when throwing the ball vertically.

Alex Smith balled out last year, guys. Among the 35 quarterbacks with 200 or more attempts, Smith ranked 12th in percentage of attempts that traveled 15 or more yards through the air, 4th in completion percentage on those throws, and 1st in percentage of passing yards coming from deep ball tosses.

And half of Smith's touchdowns were on 15-plus air-yard throws, while none of those long-ball touchdowns happened in the red zone. The average proportion of touchdowns coming from the red zone within the group of 35 quarterbacks last season was 65.68%. So Smith's 50% was far below the mean.

We should see some natural regression there, even with a new quarterback who's known for his arm strength. And newcomer Sammy Watkins can help.

Though Watkins has has had an average depth of target (aDOT) north of 13 in each of his four seasons in the league -- for some perspective, Antonio Brown's had an aDOT of 13 just once in his career -- he's not some one-trick pony. He can be utilized in the red zone. Last year, in fact, he was targeted 10 times in that area of the field, scoring 7 touchdowns. That was the highest red zone touchdown total on the Rams, despite seeing only 13.51% of the team's targets.

This could be big because that's not where teammate Tyreek Hill -- a player Watkins is going to be competing for targets with -- scored last year. Hill actually didn't tally any of his seven touchdowns from the red zone a season ago, and he had only four red zone targets. That's the same number of looks Russell Shepard saw in the red zone. Not great.

We don't know exactly how targets will be distributed in Kansas City, but is there not a shot that Watkins could simply out-target Hill this year? That they're both 100-plus target candidates, but Watkins sees a little more? Would you be surprised by that? I know I wouldn't.

And even if that's not the case, Watkins has more sustainable touchdown potential. And that's what makes his sixth-round ADP so attractive, especially when compared to Hill's third-round cost.