Over the last three seasons combined, the Carolina Panthers are tied for the NFL lead in rushes from within the opponent's five-yard line with 84. That shouldn't be all that shocking given they've got Cam Newton, goal-line rusher extraordinaire.
The team they're tied with? New England. The freaking Patriots. The team everyone's always afraid to draft running backs from.
There's some weekly unpredictability to a Patriots backfield, but you're also paying for that in drafts this year. Rex Burkhead is currently being picked as the RB34 on FantasyFootballCalculator.com, while his rookie teammate, Sony Michel, is flying off boards at RB23.
So why go with Burkhead and not Michel? Well, as I just noted, he's cheaper. That's a plus.
But if you look at last year's backfield split after Mike Gillislee started being scratched -- so after the team's Week 9 bye -- you can easily see how Burkhead is a big value right now.
Burkhead was injured in a Week 15 game against the Steelers and was on the injury report up until the Super Bowl, but we have five full games between New England's bye and when that injury occurred where both Burkhead and Dion Lewis (who Michel is hypothetically replacing) were healthy together.
| Weeks 10-14 | Avg Snap Rate | Attempts | Targets | GL Attempts | PPR PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 36.48% | 45 | 20 | 6 | 16.78 |
| Dion Lewis | 35.98% | 59 | 11 | 1 | 12.70 |
Across those five games, Burkhead averaged more snaps per contest, saw fewer attempts, compiled more targets and, most importantly, crushed Lewis in goal line work. In fact, during this stretch of five games, only two players in the entire league had more goal line attempts than Rex Burkhead. That's a big reason for his higher points per game average, as he scored four touchdowns on the ground to Lewis' one.
And since we know targets are more valuable at the running back position in fantasy football than attempts are, these are all really good signs for Burkhead.
Sure, sure, Dion Lewis isn't in New England anymore. Perhaps Sony Michel takes on a larger role than Lewis had with a healthy Burkhead.
He also...couldn't.
We know there should be some rotation in the New England backfield, leading to a lower number of snaps played per running back. It's already been reported, though, that Burkhead will be the likely goal-line back, and that's precisely what the splits above suggest. And that could be what makes him a more valuable asset in fantasy football this year when compared to Sony Michel.