Average Draft Position: 3.09, WR14, 33rd Overall

In his NFL career to date, Tyreek Hill has bucked all trends of finding a top-24 receiver. He was the PPR WR23 in 2016 on 83 targets and the WR9 on 105 targets (in 15 games) last year. He doesn't need volume to excel. But it sure would be nice to know that he's his own team's top option at this draft cost.

Not only will the Kansas City Chiefs have to begin implementing Sammy Watkins, but they also have given tight end Travis Kelce 103, 117, and 122 targets the past three seasons, and he missed a game in each of the past two years.

So even if we just subscribe to the fact that Hill will settle around 100 targets, "he did it before" isn't a good enough excuse.

Hill had just 4 red zone targets in 2017, and just 3 of his 13 receiving touchdowns in his career have come from inside the 20. In 2016 and 2017, just 1.4% of passes from outside the red zone resulted in touchdowns. Hill has turned 6.1% of his targets from outside the red zone into touchdowns in that span.

Yes, Patrick Mahomes has a cannon, but Alex Smith led the league in adjusted yards per attempt on passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield in 2017. Don't anticipate much of an actual "upgrade" in deep-ball efficiency in Kansas City.